Former South East Melbourne Phoenix Coach Simon Mitchell On How To Beat Melbourne United — And Which Teams Are Best Equipped To Do So
Former Phoenix head coach Simon Mitchell believes that despite Melbourne United's early success in the NBL24, fans shouldn't celebrate just yet.
With a deep and cohesive roster, Melbourne United is favored to win NBL24. They will be tough to beat in a best-of-three or best-of-five series if they make it that far.
However, South East Melbourne's foundation coach Simon Mitchell insists that the chip has not yet been passed to the blue team.
Former United assistant coach and current Phoenix manager Mike Mitchell believes as many as six clubs have a legitimate shot at dethroning the favored Suns.
What follows is his analysis of who can halt the United Machine and how.
TIER 1
Sydney Kings
The current league leaders are, without a shadow of a doubt, United's most formidable rival.
I believe that because of their length, athleticism, and capability to break down a defense one-on-one while also breaking out in transition and punishing teams, they are the squad that is best positioned to knock down Melbourne.
On Tuesday night, we saw that despite having relatively bad offensive skills with their decision making and their general aptitude, Perth was able to manage a score that was winnable because they were able to get out and run and compete on the boards. This was something that we were able to witness.
Sydney is well-equipped in both of these areas. They are a formidable offensive rebounding unit, and we are well aware of their capabilities in fast break situations.
They have a plethora of capable ballhandlers. You have DJ Hogg and Jaylin Galloway, both of whom can grab a defensive board and then run the floor. This prevents Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova from pressing the issue and going after the opposing team's key ballhandler or point guard, who happens to be a former NBL MVP in Jaylen Adams.
It enriches Sydney's already rich texture.
They have the defensive personnel to double-team Chris (Chris Goulding), and Galloway's tremendous growth over the past year has made him the Kings' CG43 stopper thanks to his length, athleticism, and dexterity in the perimeter.
When the Kings rested their best defender, Justin Simon, there was no drop in defensive performance because Galloway was just as dominant at that end of the floor. I also like the fire and passion that Angus Glover brings to the Kings, and he can combine with Galloway to tag team Chris if necessary. The Kings won last year's grand final series against New Zealand.
I think Jordy Hunter and Jonah Bolden will be a formidable pair in the middle against Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. and Ariel Hukporti of Melbourne United.
In fact, I'd say it's a three-headed monster, as the youngster Toohey has contributed well in limited minutes in the small-ball five position.
Even though he's only 19, he presents a significant challenge to JLA and Hukporti in the perimeter matchup.
Denzel Valentine, a former NBA player, might be the Kings' untapped potential. He's reliable and has had his moments here and there, but they're usually rather big. When discussing players willing to give up a lot for the team, he stands out as the type that is content to sit back and let the action unfold.
If you look at his past, you can see that he improves and that there will be times when it's his time to shine and he does.
Adams thrives when paired with another guard who is comfortable with the ball in his hands, so this is a perfect pairing.
TIER 2
Tasmania JackJumpers
The difference in fashion is what causes arguments, right?
The Jackies have proven they can win in Melbourne by defeating United eight times out of ten.
In a previous round in Melbourne this season, the Jackies were completely out of it for the entirety of the game but came storming back to win in the last period.
Melbourne, to me, doesn’t look like a club that’s got it entirely together, just yet — and this will evolve — but you can’t expect them to be the finished product after 10 games, especially when they’ve been without at least one injured player for all of 47 seconds.
The JackJumpers have an offensive whiz in Milton Doyle, so it's important to give him a variety of looks to keep him off guard; otherwise, he'll kill you, like he did in the fourth quarter against United, when he scored 14 points.
At the Phoenix, we had success in games played against the Jackies by being aggressive early on in an effort to steal the ball from Doyle. However, Doyle possesses the skill to split screens, penetrate tight areas, and either score in close or find open teammates when the defense breaks down. He has a deadly mid-range or long-range shot and will use it to kill you if you drop on screens. If you want to stop him, you need to discover ways to buy him even a millisecond of time so that he has to make various reads.
They need injured center Will Magnay be back, even if he can't be what he once was; he gives you another guy who can do what Marcus Lee can do; he covers Lee when he gets in foul trouble; and he and Lee together act as insurance for a team that isn't as good, defensively, on the perimeter as it has been in the past two seasons. They are the Jackies' "get out of jail free" pass.
TIER 3
SEM Phoenix
They have to prove they can win away from home. However, playing Melbourne in a playoff series does not require travel. I like the roster, and I believe they can beat anyone on their day, but I want to see it come together consistently before getting too excited. Sunday's throwdown should be a lot of fun to watch, especially if United's injured trio of Luke Travers, Clark, and Hukporti all play and if Phoenix can get back Will Cummings and Gorjok Gak to make both teams full strength.
They can't afford to have Rhys Vague start for lengthy stretches at the five, so it's crucial that Alan Williams avoids foul trouble and Gak stays healthy.
They might try (Mitch) Creeky at center, downsize, and see if they can run the gauntlet if they need cover for one of those bigs.
But you know what they say: if it works in your mind, it will work in real life.
WILDCARDS
Cairns Taipans
New Zealand Breakers
Perth Wildcats
The floor hasn't taught us anything about Cairns or New Zealand. Both of them are unpredictable. Their seasons have been disrupted by injuries, absences, and trips to the United States to watch NBA games.
Last year, the Taipans surprised everyone by advancing all the way to the playoff semi-finals. This year's squad is different, but their length and speed make them a formidable defensive adversary. Sometimes the Taipans will send out a starting lineup of five shooters, and they are all quite good.
However, we still don't know what their best starting five is, and the season is already two-thirds over. In what direction should they ideally spin?
I don't think they have what it takes to beat United in a series at the moment, but that might change if and when all the parts start fitting together again.
It's the same with the Breakers; we just don't know. They rank second to last in the league in defensive efficiency. I don't think that's going to be where they stop.
William McDowell-White got out to a slow start, but he's on the upswing now.
However, if they can get their whole squad on the court, they could challenge United for a spot in the playoffs.
The problems Perth has had are well-known, but the team does have some skill on an uneven roster including a player named Bryce Cotton. You shouldn't give up on them because if he gets incredibly hot only five times, he can carry them through anything.
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR
Brisbane Bullets
Adelaide 36ers
Illawarra Hawks
It's true that Brisbane has surprised many with their strong performance this year, but they really couldn't have done any worse than they did last year.
What Justin Schueller is doing is fantastic; he is implementing a lot of variety into the defensive end coverages and holding his players accountable. It will take some time to construct, but they are making progress.
Based on what we know so far, I don't think Adelaide and Illawarra are serious playoff contenders or serious threats to Melbourne in any facet of the game.
UNITED’S BACK COURT CONUNDRUM
It's not debatable that Ili and Dellavedova make up the best defensive duo in the NBA. The NBL might have just seen one of their best teams ever.
But I think both have had problems on offense.
While this may seem counterintuitive given Delly's scoring average (13.2 ppg), everyone who saw him play versus Perth will attest to the fact that whenever Bryce Cotton was in sight, he lit up. Other men weren't receiving their touches because of his waving them away. Yes, Bryce has his limits on that end, and I adore Delly's aggression. He must strike a balance between the two.
Shea seems to be fighting himself on offense, where he is attempting to shoot his way out of trouble when, in fact, he is at his most efficient when he is either getting his feet in the paint or ensuring that he is releasing the ball earlier and getting it through hands.
This season, CG has had too many streaks when he scored a lot of points, followed by long dry spells where he couldn't seem to get a basket.
You want to get Chris as many touches as possible in his favorite locations; therefore, it's up to Delly and Ili to prevent that from happening.
Clark is playing the finest basketball of his career in the NBL right now, and he'll need to close games for his team. This will force Deano to choose between Delly and Ili as Clark's backup point guard, and it might be based on who is having the better night.