NBL rankings: Which Clubs Are Hot — And Not — After Round 5 Of The 2023-24 Season
While the two Melbourne teams try to pull away from the rest of the pack, the defending champion Sydney Kings have gotten off to a sluggish start in the "Hoops Capital."
The two Melbourne teams sit one-two on the NBL ladder for the first time since round 14 of the 2021-22 season, with United appearing near invincible and the Phoenix finally healthy and rediscovering synergy.
The defending champion Sydney Kings are still finding their footing in the early going, while a northern surprise is outperforming expectations and several clubs are now facing a season-defining stretch in the 'Hoops Capital.
Based on the changes that occurred in the previous round, Michael Randall has ranked the teams from the hottest to the coldest.
1. Melbourne United (First, 8-1)
Melbourne United appear to be invincible in the face of injury, with two or even three quality starters available for every position. Last round they were without Matthew Dellavedova, and then on Sunday they lost import Ian Clark for their game against Illawarra, yet they still managed to come away unscathed. Chris Goulding is on fire from the field, Luke Travers is improving with each game, and Shea Ili has evolved from a ferocious defender into an even more dangerous offensive threat. This crowd is ready to go.
Big question: It’s the same as the start of the season—how do Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. and Ariel Hukporti fit?
Dean Vickerman now has a good problem on his hands, but he still needs to perform a juggling act at the five position since Next Star Hukporti has started every game, but JLA has played more minutes in each of the last three.
Coming up: If you can beat struggling Perth at home on Cup Eve, then top-of-the-table all-Melbourne blockbuster Throwdown versus the Phoenix, then defending champion Sydney, and finally surprise packet Cairns, the lid will be blown.
2. South East Melbourne Phoenix (Second, 5-3)
The Phoenix, dogged by injuries throughout their history, faced the prospect of starting the season with a dismal 1–4 record. Now that things are looking up in the Heartland, they have won four in a row and are in second place. After missing time due to knee surgery, Alan Williams has returned to star form for the Clippers. Meanwhile, Gary Browne, an international guard, and Will Cummings have formed a deadly backcourt. The result of all this is less stress for the all-star Mitch Creek.
Big question: It’s still can they stay healthy?
SEM, along with Sydney and Tasmania, are perhaps Melbourne's toughest opponents. If they get lucky and maintain the squad on the hardwood, Melbourne could be in trouble. This could very well be the deepest squad Phoenix has ever had. The backcourt is on another level, Sauce is a monster, and Creek is one of the top players in the league.
Coming up: Trip to the red-hot Bullets and a home game against Cairns before that potential moneymaker vs United in the throwdown.
3. Brisbane Bullets (Sixth, 4-4)
It looked beautiful before it was cooked, and it looks great after it was done. Rookie head coach Justin Schueller does not agree with the "transition year" suggestion that I have made. Instead, he has transformed veteran guard Nathan Sobey into a candidate for Most Valuable Player, journeyman wing Sam McDaniel into a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, and will have young big men competing for starting positions. At the end of the season, Josh Bannan's name will definitely be brought up in discussions for the Next Gen Award. They have now won four games, which puts them halfway to their win total from the previous season, which was eight. A big check.
Big question: How does Aron Baynes reintegrate and how do they cover Shannon Scott?
The Bullets continued to play champions Sydney and first-place Melbourne United during Baynes' five-game punishment for his brain snap against Cairns. However, they were heavily defeated by SEM for the second time in three days before defeating Perth in Perth and beating title aspirants Tasmania. Baynes will likely come back to settle an old score. The most worrying news is that Scott will miss at least another three games with a hamstring injury, with his comeback targeted for the Bullets' game against Perth on November 18. Can the Bullets survive until then with only veteran Mitch Norton at the helm?
Coming up: Before visiting Tasmania and then Sydney in a difficult stretch that will give a much clearer image of where this team is at, Baynes returns in time for a colossal confrontation with Alan Williams and the second-placed SEM.
4. Cairns Taipans (Third, 3-2)
Again, here we are. Despite widespread predictions to the contrary, the NBL23's Taipans advanced to the championship game. Keanu Pinder, DJ Hogg, and Shannon Scott, three of their greatest players, left the team and were replaced by a group of promising up-and-comers and a wrecking-ball import guard named Pat Miller. Despite being hit hard by injuries and absences, they returned from a trip to the United States having broken even. The Snakes were sunk by a late Tyler Harvey goal against Illawarra, but after beating the defending champions, they are riding high. They are one of the most difficult teams to scout because of the length, strength, and talent at Adam Forde's disposal.
Big question: Can Fordey keep all the Taipans happy?
At times, this team has been really entertaining to watch, thanks to the efforts of several members. Miller has been vital, but he was injured against the Kings and may not play again soon, while Taran Armstrong is expected to return. Up and Coming Performer In addition to returning stalwarts Bul Kuol and Sam Waardenburg, who appear to be reaching their potential, there are also returning players Sam Menenga, Lat Mayen, and Akoldah Gak. Bobi Klintman gives the impression that he might be anything in the NBA. Also, starting quarterback/captain Taj McCall is expected back this weekend. Even with his health problems, import big Josh Roberts hasn't played much at all; would it be possible for a switch there to make them even more formidable?
Coming up: The Taipans have a more manageable schedule compared to the other teams in the competition, with the exception of Sunday's match against South East Melbourne. Beat the Phoenix and the second slot is there for grabs.
5. Adelaide 36ers (Seventh, 3-5)
How do you even begin to analyze the Sixers? They just didn't do a good job of recruiting to begin the season, and it showed on the court. The team's roster was unbalanced, and they had to make one of the quickest import cuts in history when they released Jamaal Franklin during the preseason blitz. After losing their first four games, Adelaide's coach, CJ Bruton, heard the jungle drums beating and knew it was time to pack it in. The Sixers aren't sitting on their hands, though. They recruited dual NBL-champion Dejan Vasiljevic, much to the Kings' displeasure. While it immediately became clear that Trentyn Flowers, the Sixers' Next Big Thing, was not the point guard they needed, he is an extremely gifted and enthusiastic 18-year-old athlete. Bruton has shortened the rotation, increased minutes for big man Isaac Humphries, and formed an instant rapport with DJ, with whom he has been friends for more than a decade after playing junior basketball together.
Big question: Is it sustainable—and are the Sixers done with their roster yet?
Without a doubt, Vasiljevic has revitalized this Sixers team, not only with his stellar play but also with his leadership off the court, having initiated a player-only meeting where home truths were aired and new standards were set. This is especially true if either Humphries or Jacob Wiley go down with an injury. The Sixers still have an open import spot, and another big might be added if a high-caliber foreign player becomes available.
Coming up: The Sixers' journey to Perth on Saturday night will be closely watched to see whether they can pull off an upset like the Bullets did last week. Tassie and SEM are up next, but if you can get past them and beat New Zealand, a 2-2 record isn't terrible.
6. Sydney Kings (Fourth, 4-3)
My friends in the "Hoops Capital" may accuse me of "Melbourne bias," but even they have to admit that this season has gotten off to a shaky start. The retooled Kings have shown flashes of invincibility yet also lacked cohesion after consecutive losses to Tassie at home and the Taipans in Cairns. It stands to reason. Newly signed superstar DJ Hogg made his Kings debut, but the team lost Jaylin Galloway to injury. Mahmoud Abdelfattah has a tall order to follow in the footsteps of one of the league's all-time great coaches in Chase Buford and have a club with five new starters quickly click. Rest easy, team in Sydney. The Kings have a starting five that includes Hogg, Jaylen Adams, Jordy Hunter, Jonah Bolden, and Next Star Alex Toohey (only 17 years old, but already looking like a first-round pick in the NBA draft), and a bench that is the envy of the league.
Big question: Will Denzel Valentine figure it out?
Valentine was a star in college but struggled to make an impact in the NBA. His 10-5-4 line demonstrates his versatility, but he's only been so-so so far. If he ever catches fire, though, the former Chicago Bull could be the catalyst United needs to be dethroned.
Coming up: The Kings have lost to Cairns and Tasmania, but if they can beat Illawarra, New Zealand, and Brisbane, they will set up a tantalizing showdown with Melbourne United.
7. Tasmania JackJumpers (Fifth, 4-4)
Preseason, I was one of the few who had doubts about the Jackies' new orientation. However, they won me over and then promptly slipped from second to fifth after producing blanks against Melbourne and Brisbane. It's not that I don't think the Ants can still win, but I do think there's been some "subtraction by addition" in their roster. They have the top offensive rating in the NBL, but losing Sam McDaniel and Matt Kenyon, two of their finest wing defenders, has hurt them more than most people realize. Jordan Usher scored 35 points, Nate Sobey added 28, Jaylen Adams scored 21 twice, and Gary Browne scored 20, but the team needs more production from the bench and from the post because even though the backcourt of Milton Doyle and Jordon Crawford has been outstanding and Jack McVeigh has been superb, the team needs more support. The Jackies had the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBL the previous season, but they are currently third-worst after eight games in the NBL24. After their loss to Brisbane last week, the team's coach, Scott Roth, was blunt about his team's defensive shortcomings: "Our defense is not good enough; it's not at a championship level, it's not at a top-four level and, as I've told these guys from day one, if it doesn't get up in those categories of being better in defending the three-point line and keeping guys off the foul line, you're just in for a long season."
Big question: Can Will Magnay first get on the floor, then get back to his best again?
Magnay, a former NBA player, could be the lynchpin the JackJumpers need to finally win it all. He hasn't played since February 19, but his return to training means he'll be able to help the Ants out by providing the size opposite of import big Marcus Lee.
Coming up: The Ants have a better chance of turning things around after a tough start because they play Brissy in a revenge game in Tasmania, then Adelaide (twice), Cairns, and New Zealand (twice).
8. Illawarra Hawks (Ninth, 2-5)
With the Hawks, where do you even begin? This club was expected to contend after undergoing significant roster changes and receiving generally positive health reports. It has been anything but, with victories against an injury-plagued SEM and Cairns coming down to a buzzer-beating shot from Tyler Harvey. There's something not quite right with the Hawks, and coach Jacob Jackomas is under intense pressure from the team's devoted fan base to find and implement a solution quickly. The Hawks have a talented core with Harvey, Clark, Justin Robinson, and Sam Froling, but they have yet to realize their full potential. One of the most remarkable young Australians in the league, Lachlan Olbrich is a hulking teenager who loves to bash and crash with older, more seasoned bigs and never gives up. His role is growing, and his talent is limitless. The Hawks had a good round overall, winning against Cairns and playing well enough to win away from home against a United team that was outnumbered.
Big question: Will Gary Clark fulfill his NBA promise and is Next Star AJ Johnson up to it?
The Hawks certainly hope so, but as for the second question, nobody knows. There has been a wide gap between Clark's greatest and worst performances, despite the fact that he entered the season with MVP expectations. The Hawks were outrebounded 49-24 despite scoring 24 points (a season high) against United. Johnson, a highly regarded American teenager, has played only five minutes per game on average this season, contributing just 11 points. How far off is Jackomas from letting the kid loose?
Coming up: Before heading to Cairns, New Zealand and Brisbane, the Hawks play Sydney in a Freeway Series grudge match, which always brings out the unexpected. If you lose all of it, it's over.
9. New Zealand Breakers (Last, 1-4)
The New Zealand Breakers have gotten off to a terrible start in NBL24 after reaching the championship game last year. Allow me to paraphrase Coach Mody Maor:
Our preseason was severely hampered because we sent more players to the World Cup than any other team in the league. When key members are missing, it's difficult to gel into a cohesive unit. While we did had some players return from injury during the preseason, we also had a number of unlucky injuries. After losing Will (McDowell-White) for six weeks, Finn (Delany) for six weeks, Mantas (Rubstavicius) for six weeks, (Justinian) Jessup for the entire season, and now Zylan (Cheatham) for six to eight weeks, we have lost almost everyone. These are not excuses, these are the circumstances with which we have been faced."
The Breakers were down by as many as 40 points against SEM, but thanks to a fantastic performance from Parker Jackson-Cartwright (33 points), they came within three minutes of pulling off an incredible comeback.
Big question: Can Will McDowell-White become an MVP candidate and Boomer?
If McDowell-White can continue to play as he did in the fourth quarter of the comeback against SEM, the Breakers should not be discounted. It would be really helpful right now if WMDW had someone to work with in the pick and roll who could make lob passes.
Coming up: Cairns, Sydney, Perth, Tasmania, Illawarra. In the Breakers’ current predicament, no matchup is ideal.
10. Perth Wildcats (Eighth, 2-5)
The owner has come out in support of the coach, who is currently under investigation; the star player's wife has taken to social media to air her grievances; players are brawling with each other, with spectators at the stadium, and with trolls on Instagram; and the Red Army is calling for blood. In Perth, things are not in a pretty state.
Big question: Does Perth really have the talent to turn it around?
They are preaching it, and any team that has Bryce Cotton always has a shot, but the three-time MVP has been struggling recently, and no one else has been able to make up for his absence. Is it safe to say that Hutchy gave John Rillie his unwavering support, or was this a fatal mistake? Time will tell, but Rillie won't be fooled into thinking he doesn't need to act quickly to find a solution to the problem of the sinking ship.
Coming up: Rillie and co. have a chance to turn things around with a revenge game against Adelaide at home on Saturday night, followed by a trip to Melbourne to face the league-leading Melbourne United on Monday. It's crucial that we win against the 36ers. Home field advantage against New Zealand and then Cairns might be game-changing.